Abstract:

What role do issues, leaders, and media play in the short run dynamics of a national election campaign on influencing support for new vs. established political parties? Drawing on a two-wave panel in Delhi in the2014 Lok Sabha election, Dr. Semetko will discuss campaign influences on vote preferences during the final weeks of the campaign. A McFaddon choice model is used to compare influences on established party vs. newparty support (BJP/AAP vs. INC/AAP, with AAP as the base), including issue salience, attention to national politics in various media, leader evaluations, prior party support at time 1 and demographics. Radio wassignificant for the winning (established) party to the detriment of the new party, while the press was significant for the losing (established) party to the detriment of the new party. Significant issues were: corruption and law & order (AAP), communalism (INC), and economic growth (BJP). Leader evaluations were significant for each party’s support. Attention to political information on the Internet was not significant. These variables and significant demographics are discussed.

About the Speaker:

Professor Holli A. Semetko, MSc PhD (LSE), MBA (Emory) is Asa Griggs Candler Professor of Media & International Affairs, Professor of Political Science, Emory University, USA. She was a Fulbright Nehru Scholar atIIT-Bombay 2013-14. She has been part of India Election Study (IES) team since 2014 and has conducted surveys in the 2014 Lok Sabha election and in Assembly elections in Bihar in 2015 and West Bengal in 2016.