Dr. Preeti Dhillon, from International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), Mumbai, will be delivering a seminar titled "Economic implications of longevity improvements and age structural transition in India".

Abstract:

Longevity improvement and fertility decline during the second half of twentieth century has resulted into population ageing in India. In this context, the study aims to investigate the implications of longevity improvements on economic participation of elderly and of age structural transitions on healthcare expenditure in India.

The study uses time series secondary data from Sample Registration System, Census of India, National Sample Survey Organization, National Health Account Statistics, and UN World Prospects. Applying multiple decrement approach, working life tables were constructed, for which inputs were- age-specific death rates (ASDRs) and work participation rates. I applied Lee-carter method to forecast ASDRs and entry-exit cohort approach for the projection of work participation rates. To examine the effect of age structural transitions on future health care expenditure (HCE), I estimated age composition index for health expenditure and gross domestic product (GDP).

Findings suggest that longevity among females and rural residents improved faster than that among males and urban counterparts. Work participation among the elderly compared with the prime age group marginally declined in the past and further projected to decline among urban males. Unlike the female elderly longevity improvements were not translating into active economic life among the male elderly. In urban areas, longevity improvements support a longer working life, but the same is not true for rural areas. Moreover, adjusted old age dependency ratio is higher for the females in urbanized states of India. Age composition index for HE showed that population aging was attributed for 0.5% higher HCE in 2005, which is expected to increase to 0.8% in 2025 and become stagnant after wards. However, age-compositional effect on GDP may drop from 0.6% to 0.4% during the same period.

In conclusion, longevity improvement is translating into longer economic activity only among the females and urban population. Population age structure will attribute the higher HCE and lower GDP. The findings of the study are crucial for evolving a sustainable healthcare support system in view of the impending population ageing in India. 

About the Speaker:

Dr. Preeti Dhillon is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematical Demography & Statistics at International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), Mumbai. She holds Ph.D and M.Phil in Population Studies and MSc. degree in Mathematics. She has four years of work experience in development sector and has worked as a Technical Specialist in International Center for Research on Women-Asia Regional Office, Delhi; as a Monitoring & Evaluation Coordinator in Save the Children, India and as a consultant in United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA, India). Her research areas of interest include survey research methods, projections, health economics, population ageing, maternal and child health, adolescents & youth and gender issues. She has published seven research papers in peer reviewed journals and one research article in edited book and one book.